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HGC Scenarios: NA Western Clash
Hey guys, breaking down clash scenarios. First, let's cover the tiebreaker rules:

1) Match Wins
2) Game Differential (map wins - map losses)
3) Head-to-Head
4) Number of 3-0s
5) Number of 3-1s

This is a change from last year, where Game Differential was BELOW head-to-head.

Note that these rules are applied to select 1 team at a time for the next seed.

Here's the layout of NA teams heading to the Western Clash:

Tempo Storm (5 Match wins, +9 Game Difference, 1 3-0, 3 3-1s)

Tempo Storm is going to the Western Clash. Theoretically, they could drop as low as a 3 seed.

Team Freedom (4 Match wins, +5 Game Difference, 1 3-0, 2 3-1s)

Team Freedom clinches with at least 2 wins against Simplicity. If they win the series, or lose 2-3, they clinch. In fact, their only path out is to fall behind on game margin to Gale Force Esports AND HeroesHearth. This means if they lose 1-3, and GFE and HHE both win 3-0, they are out. If they lose 0-3, and GFE and HHE both win 3-0 or 3-1, they are out. Every other situation, they are in. (In a case with a 3-way tie with GFE and HHE, they have head-to-head wins over both, and would take the three seed, with HHE taking the 4 seed). Related: See 4-way-tie below.

Team Twelve (4 Match wins, +5 Game Difference, 1 3-0, 2 3-1s)

This is very very similiar to Team Freedom. At least 2 wins against SSG and they go to Western Clash. Their only path out is to lose on map margin to GFE and HHE. So if they lose 1-3, and GFE and HHE sweep, they are out.

However, Another situation to consider is the three-way tie on map differential with HHE and GFE. Here, no one has an advantage head-to-head because GFE beat HHE who beat Team Twelve who beat GFE. Therefore, we go to number of 3-0s.

In this situation, it's possible for Team Twelve to lose, since all of the top 5 have 1 3-0 win so far, and if HHE AND GFE sweep, they both would have 2 3-0s, then HHE has more 3-1s than GFE. So HHE gets 3 seed, but then Team Twelve takes the 4 seed over GFE head to head.

If both teams (GFE/HHE) win 3-1 and there is a tie, then HHE would advance with the 3 seed for having the most 3-1s (3 to GFE and HHEs 2), then Team Twelve would advance because of head-to-head over GFE.

As before, see 4-way tie below.

Gale Force Esports & Heroes Hearth (Both 3 Match Wins, both +1 Game Differential, GFE has 1 3-0 and 1 3-1, HHE has 1 3-0 and 2 3-1s)

Combining these into one section, since they are dependent on each other. Let's assume for now that Team Twelve and Team Freedom both get at least 2 wins. In this situation, only one of GFE and HHE goes to western Clash. This would either come down to Game Differential or Head to head.

HeroesHearth plays LFM, while Gale Force plays Tempo Storm. If Gale Force does as good or better than HHE (and Simplicity doesn't pass they both, see below), then GFE would advance to the Western Clash off either Map differential (if they did better) or Head to head (if they did the same).

Example, if HHE beats LFM 3-1, Gale Force advances if and only if they beat Tempo Storm either 3-1 or 3-0. A 3-2 victory or a loss, and HHE would go.

If HHE loses 2-3, and GFE either loses 2-3 or wins, GFE goes. Otherwise HHE goes.

For three way ties with either Team Twelve or Team Freedom, see above.

And again, see 4-way tie below.

Simplicity (2 Match wins, -3 Game Differential, 1 3-0, 1 3-1)

Like the black knight from Monty Python, Simplicity still has a fighting chance. Simplicity needs all of the following to happen:

- Simplicity beats Team Freedom 3-1 or 3-0
- Gale Force Esports losses to Tempo Storm either 1-3 or 0-3 (if Simplicity only wins 3-1, GFE must lose 0-3)
- HHE loses to LFM Esports either 1-3 or 0-3 (if Simplicity only wins 3-1, HHE must lose 0-3)

If all three of these happen, Simplicity takes the 4 seed to Western Clash via the Game Differential tiebreaker. They lose head-to-head to all GFE and HHE.

4 Way Tie in Game Differential


Okay, there are a few 4-way tie scenarios:

-GFE beats Tempo Storm 3-0
-HHE beats LFM 3-0
-Team Freedom loses to Simplicity 2-3
-Team Twelve loses to SSG 2-3

In this situation:
 
Team Match Record Game +/- Head-to-Head wins 3-0 3-1
Freedom 4-3 +4 GFE, HHE 1 2
T12 4-3 +4 GFE, TF 1 2
GFE 4-3 +4 HHE 2 1
HHE 4-3 +4 T12 2 2

If tie breaker is applied similar to last year, this would be
#1 Tempo Storm
#2 Heroes Hearth
#3 Team Twelve
#4 Team Freedom

Heroes Hearth would emerge because the head to head tie breaker is inconclusive, then Freedom and T12 would be eliminated from 2 seed contention by having only 1 3-0, the Heroes Hearth would take the 2 seed over GFE for having 2 2-1 victories.

From there, it would fully reset with T12, GFE, and TF tided. T12 has head-to-head over both, and would take the 3 seed.

Then Freedom would take the four seed over GFE.

Situation #2

-GFE beats Tempo Storm 3-1
-HHE beats LFM 3-1
-Team Freedom loses to Simplicity 1-3
-Team Twelve loses to SSG 1-3

In this situation:
 
Team Match Record Game +/- Head-to-Head wins 3-0 3-1
Freedom 4-3 +3 GFE, HHE 1 2
T12 4-3 +3 GFE, TF 1 2
GFE 4-3 +3 HHE 1 2
HHE 4-3 +3 T12 1 3

In this situation, the seeds would be:

#1 Tempo Storm
#2 Heroes Hearth (3-1s)
#3 Team Twelve (Head to Head over TF/GFE)
#4 Team Freedom (Head to Head over GFE)

Situation #3
-GFE beats Tempo Storm 3-2
-HHE beats LFM 3-2
-Team Freedom loses to Simplicity 0-3
-Team Twelve loses to SSG 0-3

In this situation:
 
Team Match Record Game +/- Head-to-Head wins 3-0 3-1
Freedom 4-3 +2 GFE, HHE 1 2
T12 4-3 +2 GFE, TF 1 2
GFE 4-3 +2 HHE 1 1
HHE 4-3 +2 T12 1 2

In this situation, the seeds would be:

#1 Tempo Storm
And then #2-#4 would be HHE, Team Freedom, and Team 12 based on being tied 3-1s (with GFE dropping because of only 1 3-1).

From there, according to the rules, these teams are inseperable, since they are all 1-1 head to head against each other, have same 3-0s and same 3-1s. So in this, seeding would presumably be resolved via sudden death matches. Since there is no precedent here to go on, I do not know how seeding gets resolve for this.

The point is, GFE would not go to Poland.

Thanks for reading, I'll post Europe Tomorrow.

 

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I'm glad you understand this better than I do, cause damn. However, I am really glad to know that every match matters this weekend!