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October 31st, 2018 Patch - 7 Days Later
7 Days Later
(banner courtesy of /u/Somber99)

View the previous post on HeroesHearth here.
View all of my previous blog posts here.

Hello again!  After each balance patch, I've taken it upon myself to track how the balance changes have affected the Nexus.  It's become something of a habit for me, and I thought it might be fun to share my data with the community.

In case you've forgotten what changed in the last patch, here's a link.



Disclaimer (please read!):
All data provided in this post was collected from Hotslogs, which is a database of player-submitted games.  Data was collected between 3:30 PM and 4:30 PM EST each day, using the special filter "Last 7 Days (Current Build)".  As usual, keep in mind that my numbers may differ slightly from Hotslogs's "official" figures as the site regularly updates older information as more games are added. Therefore, our data may not match up perfectly, but it should give a generally accurate view of how the week progressed.

Here is a link to the spreadsheet with the data I've collected.  The spreadsheet contains all of my original data, split into two categories: "Composite" (which represents all data across the entire week) and "Daily" (which represents data from each individual day).  If you'd prefer a summarized report, read on!



Here is a table showing the win rates, pick rates, ban rates, and overall popularity of each hero in Hero League and Team League:


Remember, only the heroes whose win rates are highlighted blue/orange with white text have exceeded their margin of error.  Heroes which do not exceed the margin of error are considered to have too little data to confirm that they have changed in any significant way.  Note that the error column assumes a 95% confidence interval.  To put it simply, a 95% confidence interval is a numerical way to measure whether the win rate has changed in any significant way.  If the change to a win rate exceeds the error, then we can assume that there is approximately a 95% chance that the win rate has changed.



The seven-day analysis is below.  Please note that while I try to cover all heroes, not all heroes are in need of in-depth analysis of their changes, so some heroes may have short summaries or may even be omitted entirely.  Also, be aware that the contents of this section are primarily my own opinion of the changes, albeit backed with data.  If you disagree, feel free to explain why in the comments below.

1) Multiple heroes are on the rise in Team League.  Artanis has seen a statistically significant increase in Team League, though not in Hero League.  This seems to suggest that his performance in more coordinated play is improving, probably due to the fact that his Phase Prism has a 2 second shorter CD, allowing for more frequent swapping by skilled players.  Uther has also seen a 5.7 p.p. bump in the last week as more organized play allows for people to capitalize on Uther's now longer stun for their stun combos.

2) Li Li and Tyrande have seen a slight decrease in organized play.  Li Li's decline is fairly minor, only logging at about -2.5 p.p. in Team League.  She lost only about 5% of her healing strength on Q, which isn't necessarily massive, but 5% is usually just about enough that you can feel a difference.  Tyrande players are also going to feel a bit more pressure after this week as Kaldorai Resistance has a shorter protection window (reduced from 3s to 2s), meaning that players will now have to be more precise with their applications of healing to take advantage of the damage mitigation that this talent provides.  It was also probably wise to tweak the stun's cooldown a bit upwards, too, since it's a prime choice for creating CC chains.

3) Lunara's win rate dips in Hero League, in part due to increased presence in games.  An increase of 0.9 p.p. in popularity doesn't seem like much, but for a hero who is only being played less than 10% of the time, that's a decent jump in popularity.  Of course, her popularity grew a bit in Team League too, so this is not the sole reason for the decline.  The talent change in question didn't really cause a shift in its popularity as it's still the lowest picked talent in its tier, so measuring the rest of this decline is a bit harder to do than one might think.  Of course, it's also possible this is just a false negative.  Statistics aren't perfect, after all.

4) Lucio got a big spike in win rate in both ranked modes, though I remain skeptical that this will translate to long-term success in fixing his balance issues.  While this does obviously help him quite a lot in terms of meta consideration, since a constant 20% speed boost is hard to pass up, it doesn't really fix some of the fundamental problems he has with his talent tree, namely a lack of good diversity in talents that change how he feels or plays.  It also raises potential concerns of making him "OP" for competitive play, since every time he's received ordinary numerical buffs like this, it's led to him becoming a lot more meta to the point where people get sick of him....and the subsequent nerfs usually drop him right back down into obscurity.  Hopefully these changes will keep him healthy without going too far, but I suspect the devs will still have to revisit him one day to fix this talent tree.



Looking for more of my work?  My last HGC article focuses on Kerrigan, the revamped Queen of Blades, and her performance at Blizzcon.  That article is located here.  Feel free to let me know your thoughts to this article in the comments section below, or on Twitter at my handle @CriticKitten.  I look forward to your replies!

Hope to see you again next time!
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