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May 10th, 2018 Patch - 48 Hours Later
48 Hours Later
(banner courtesy of /u/Somber99)

View the previous post on HeroesHearth here.
View all of my previous blog posts here.

Hello again!  After each balance patch, I've taken it upon myself to track how the balance changes have affected the Nexus.  It's become something of a habit for me, and I thought it might be fun to share my data with the community.

In case you've forgotten what changed in the last patch, here's a link.  Yes, I'm aware that the patch took place on the 9th, but I pushed my post back a day in order to gather more reliable data starting from the hotfix on the 10th instead.



Disclaimer (please read!):
All data provided in this post was collected from Hotslogs, which is a database of player-submitted games.  Data was collected between 3:30 PM and 4:30 PM EST each day, using the special filter "Last 7 Days (Current Build)" and focusing exclusively on Hero League data (with the exception of heroes like Cho'Gall, whose unique nature requires pulling data from Team League).  This post is not meant to suggest any immediate balance changes. Because the sheet only covers 48 hours of matches as of the time of this post, the data is very likely to be unreliable in some cases and may change as the week progresses. I will be giving an update on the status of these heroes after one week has passed. If you'd like to wait until then, feel free to do so. The only purpose of this post is to provide initial information about how the changes have affected things, so that people who are interested in that sort of thing have a resource to look at.

Here is a link to the spreadsheet with the data I've collected.  The spreadsheet contains all of my original data, split into two categories: "Composite" (which represents all data across the entire week) and "Daily" (which represents data from each individual day).  It also contains a number of graphs showing how each hero is performing in both win rate and popularity.  If you'd prefer a summarized report, read on!



Here is a table showing the win rates, pick rates, ban rates, and overall popularity (click here for a color-adjusted version):

Note that the error column assumes a 95% confidence interval.  To put it simply, a 95% confidence interval is a numerical way to measure whether the win rate has changed in any significant way.  If the change to a win rate exceeds the error, then we can assume that there is approximately a 95% chance that the win rate has changed, and lies somewhere within the range given in the right-most column.

Here is a table showing the composite and daily win rates as charts, as well as a chart comparing the previous and current pick/ban rates (click here for a color-adjusted version):

Win rates are shown as a bar indicating their relative distance from 50%.  Green bars shown above the line are win rates that are above 50%, and red bars below the line show win rates that are below 50%.  This gives a visual representation of how the win rate has changed each day.  The final column splits the pick rate and ban rate into green and red sections, respectively, to show their overall influence on the popularity.  The bar above is the original popularity, and the bar below represents the popularity after the designated period.



The seven-day analysis will take place on May 17th.

Looking for more of my work?  Check out my work on covering Fenix's results in the HGC.  That article is located here.  Or if you'd prefer to discuss the game's meta, I put out an article detailing mobility creep in the game, which is located here.  That article is located here.  Feel free to let me know your thoughts to this article in the comments section below, or on Twitter at my handle @CriticKitten.  I look forward to your replies!

Hope to see you again next time!
Comments
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Thank you for your original content! I always read your articles.

Here is a tip for you:
It's hard to read the popularity section in the last table. I think you should make the bars less tall so that there is more white space between each group of bars related to the same Hero.
Agreed, though unfortunately I can't add any white space to those sparklines. Still, I'm working on ways to make the divide between heroes a little easier to see.