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March 27th, 2018 Patch - 7 Days Later
7 Days Later
(banner courtesy of /u/Somber99)

View the previous post on HeroesHearth here.
View all of my previous blog posts here.

Hello again!  After each balance patch, I've taken it upon myself to track how the balance changes have affected the Nexus.  It's become something of a habit for me, and I thought it might be fun to share my data with the community.

In case you've forgotten what changed in the last patch, here's a link.

Disclaimer (please read!):
All data provided in this post was collected from Hotslogs, which is a database of player-submitted games.  Data was collected between 3:30 PM and 4:30 PM EST each day, using the special filter "Last 7 Days (Current Build)" and focusing exclusively on Hero League data (with the exception of heroes like Cho'Gall, whose unique nature requires pulling data from Team League).  As usual, keep in mind that my numbers may differ slightly from Hotslogs's "official" figures as the site regularly updates older information as more games are added. Therefore, our data may not match up perfectly, but it should give a generally accurate view of how the week progressed.

Here is a link to the spreadsheet with the data I've collected.  The spreadsheet contains all of my original data, split into two categories: "Composite" (which represents all data across the entire week) and "Daily" (which represents data from each individual day).  It also contains a number of graphs showing how each hero is performing in both win rate and popularity.  If you'd prefer a summarized report, read on!

Here is a table showing the win rates (click here for a color-adjusted version):

Note that the error column assumes a 95% confidence interval.  To put it simply, a 95% confidence interval is a numerical way to measure whether the win rate has changed in any significant way.  If the change to a win rate exceeds the error, then we can assume that there is approximately a 95% chance that the win rate has changed, and lies somewhere within the range given in the right-most column.

Here is a table showing popularity rates (click here for a color-adjusted version):

In the last column of this table, you can see a small bar chart indicating how much the popularity is estimated to have changed by.  For any row in which the popularity went up, the original popularity is shown in black, and the increase is shown in green.  For any row in which the popularity went down, the current popularity is shown in black, and the decrease is shown in red.  This is to provide a visual representation of how much a hero's popularity has shifted.  Keep in mind that the general trend for popularity is that a hero who declines in popularity will often increase in win rate, and vice versa, though there are always exceptions to this rule.

The seven-day analysis is below.  Please note that while I try to cover all heroes, not all heroes are in need of in-depth analysis of their changes, so some heroes may have short summaries or may even be omitted entirely.  Also, be aware that the contents of this section are primarily my own opinion of the changes, albeit backed with data.  If you disagree, feel free to explain why in the comments below.

1) Fenix has remained fairly steady around 62% for most of the week, though he is trending slowly upwards on the most recent patch.  This is not too terribly surprising, since the data shows that his ban rate has dramatically increased.  This, in turn, has dropped the number of actual games that he appears in (from its peak of 20.4% picked down to 16.7%).  And as I've suggested before, heroes tend to trend upwards when their number of played games goes down.  While it is surprising that we haven't seen a patch yet to address his clear strength, it is possible that a patch will be forthcoming very soon with some damage nerfs to reduce his overall effectiveness.  In particular, "Advanced Targeting" (71.6% PR, 64.3% WR) at Lvl 1 seems a likely target for nerfs, given that his Q build can outclass many of his other choices when properly optimized at the start of a game.

2) Tracer has climbed, though it is possible that this is due to the mass exodus she has experienced in play time.  Tracer dropped from a pick rate of 16.6% down to a pick rate of 13% after day one, which coincidentally is also where her win rate peaked out this week at a 57.7%.  Now it has climbed back up to a 15.3% pick rate after today's figures, with a corresponding drop in win rate.  While it is very likely that she will be nerfed a little bit to bring her more in line with expectations, it's very possible that the nerfs will not be as significant as some are expecting, depending on how the developers interpret this data.  For what it's worth, her Master/Diamond performance is considerably higher, so that's also a factor worth considering.

3) Conversely, Varian's climb in pick rate may be a factor in his weaker performance right now.  Varian went from a 26.3% pick rate prior to the patch up to a 34.5% pick rate after.  This typically results in a decline in win rate, as less experienced players try him out and aren't practiced enough with him to get a good grasp of his new capabilities.  Now that his pick rate is a bit lower at a 30.3%, it's possible that we will eventually start to see him climb back up, and the very slow incline on his data after the newest patch seems to back that up.  All the same, there are still some areas where we might see further improvements, in particular his limited health pool and the way that his heroics are balanced around it.

Looking for more of my work?  Check out my newest piece about Maiev in the HGC!  That article is located here.

Hope to see you again next time!
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